Oil Reserve Drawdown

Oil Reserve Drawdown

Observed global oil stocks are 509 mb lower than at end-February. At the current deficit (1.89 mb/d) the 1,100 mb of IEA government stocks would be gone by 5 Jun 2028; a full Hormuz re-closure (9.3 mb/d) brings that to 27 Feb 2027.

331 of 426 mb of the IEA collective action delivered by 30 Sep 2026; 96 mb still to come.

Emergency oil stocks since the Strait of Hormuz closed on 2 March 2026. Figures through 27 Oct 2026; every number links to its source.

−509 mb

Observed global oil stocks vs end-February

IEA Oil Market Report, 14 Oct 2026, to 30 Sep 2026

−1.7 mb/d

2026 supply balance, latest forecast. Pre-war it was +3.7

IEA OMR 14 Oct 2026 vs 12 Feb 2026

331 of 426 mb

IEA release delivered; 96 mb still to deliver

240 mb state + 91 mb industry; only 8 mb in September (S&P Global / IEA)

1,100 mb

Government emergency stocks left in IEA countries

IEA Executive Director statement; includes over 200 mb of diesel, 7 Oct 2026

5 Jun 2028

When those stocks run out at the current deficit of 1.89 mb/d

If Hormuz fully re-closes (9.3 mb/d): 27 Feb 2027. Arithmetic from 1 Nov 2026, not a forecast.

The deficit, before and after the war

Observed change in global oil stocks each month, in mb/d, against the IEA's February forecast for 2026 and the EIA's outlook for the fourth quarter. updated 30 Sep 2026

Show as a table
MonthObserved change (mb)Realized (mb/d)IEA pre-war forecast (mb/d)EIA outlook (mb/d)Basis
Dec 2025+37+1.19not publishednot publishedIEA observed stock change
Jan 2026+49+1.58+3.8not publishedIEA observed stock change
Feb 2026not publishednot published+3.8not publishedIEA did not publish a February figure
Mar 2026−129−4.16+3.8not publishedIEA observed stock change
Apr 2026−74−2.47+4.4not publishedIEA observed stock change
May 2026−143−4.61+4.4not publishedIEA observed stock change
Jun 2026+21+0.70+4.4not publishedIEA observed stock change
Jul 2026−69−2.23+3.4not publishedIEA observed stock change
Aug 2026−95−3.06+3.4not publishedIEA observed stock change
Sep 2026−10−0.33+3.4not publishedIEA observed stock change
Oct 2026not publishednot published+3.1−0.69EIA STEO 6 Oct: 4Q26 stock draw 0.69 mb/d
Nov 2026not publishednot published+3.1−0.69EIA STEO 6 Oct: 4Q26 stock draw 0.69 mb/d
Dec 2026not publishednot published+3.1−0.69EIA STEO 6 Oct: 4Q26 stock draw 0.69 mb/d

The IEA's 2026 balance, report by report

What each monthly Oil Market Report expected the full-year 2026 supply balance to be. Hollow markers are balances derived from the report's supply and demand figures rather than stated. updated 31 Oct 2026

Show as a table
Report2026 balance (mb/d)HowSource
Dec 2025+3.84balance as reportedkitco.com
Jan 2026+3.69balance as reportedkitco.com
Feb 2026+3.70balance as reportedargusmedia.com
Mar 2026+2.40supply minus demand from the report (derived)iea.blob.core.windows.net
Apr 2026+0.30balance as reportediea.blob.core.windows.net
May 2026−1.80supply minus demand from the report (derived)iea.blob.core.windows.net
Jun 2026−0.90supply minus demand from the report (derived)iea.blob.core.windows.net
Jul 2026−0.86balance as reportednewsquawk.com
Aug 2026−1.27balance as reportednewsquawk.com
Sep 2026−1.74balance as reportedief.org
Oct 2026−1.70supply minus demand from the report (derived)ief.org

When would government reserves run dry?

Each bar runs from the day the usable 400 mb outside China and the Gulf would be gone to the day all 1,100 mb of IEA government stocks would be, if the deficit were met from reserves alone from 1 Nov 2026. updated 23 Oct 2026

Show as a table
ScenarioDeficit (mb/d)Usable 400 mb goneAll 1,100 mb goneBasis
EIA's Q4 outlook0.692 Jun 2028 (579 d)14 Mar 2031 (1,594 d)EIA STEO 6 Oct: 4Q26 global stock draw
Current deficit1.8931 May 2027 (211 d)5 Jun 2028 (582 d)Observed stocks fell 174 mb in Jul-Sep (IEA): 174 / 92 days
Wartime peak3.814 Feb 2027 (105 d)17 Aug 2027 (289 d)IEA: stocks drew ~3.8 mb/d on average through May
Hormuz fully re-closes9.314 Dec 2026 (43 d)27 Feb 2027 (118 d)Kpler full re-closure scenario, ~9.3 mb/d lost

Country drawdown

Reserve level as a share of its pre-war reading. The dashed line continues the chosen pace to the chosen target. Pace and target change the arithmetic, not the data. updated 27 Oct 2026

Pace
Target
Show the readings as a table
SeriesDateLevel (mb)Share of pre-warBasis
United States27 Feb 2026415.4100.0%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States6 Mar 2026415.4100.0%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States13 Mar 2026415.4100.0%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States20 Mar 2026415.4100.0%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States27 Mar 2026415.199.9%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States3 Apr 2026413.399.5%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States10 Apr 2026409.298.5%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States17 Apr 2026405.097.5%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States24 Apr 2026397.995.8%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States1 May 2026392.794.5%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States8 May 2026384.192.5%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States15 May 2026374.290.1%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States22 May 2026365.187.9%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States29 May 2026357.186.0%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States5 Jun 2026349.284.0%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States12 Jun 2026340.381.9%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States19 Jun 2026331.279.7%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States26 Jun 2026325.778.4%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States3 Jul 2026319.576.9%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States10 Jul 2026316.576.2%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States17 Jul 2026311.475.0%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States24 Jul 2026307.674.1%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States31 Jul 2026304.873.4%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States7 Aug 2026298.771.9%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States14 Aug 2026293.470.6%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States21 Aug 2026289.769.7%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States28 Aug 2026286.669.0%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States4 Sep 2026285.468.7%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States11 Sep 2026285.068.6%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States18 Sep 2026284.668.5%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States25 Sep 2026283.868.3%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States2 Oct 2026283.068.1%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States9 Oct 2026283.068.1%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States16 Oct 2026282.768.0%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
United States23 Oct 2026282.668.0%EIA weekly SPR crude stocks (WCSSTUS1)
Japan28 Feb 2026258.6100.0%METI volume, end-Feb (pre-war)
Japan31 Mar 2026256.599.2%METI quick estimate: 146 state days x 279,300 kL/d
Japan30 Apr 2026223.186.3%METI quick estimate: 127 state days x 279,300 kL/d
Japan31 May 2026191.574.1%METI quick estimate: 109 state days x 279,300 kL/d
Japan30 Jun 2026184.571.4%METI quick estimate: 105 state days x 279,300 kL/d
Japan31 Jul 2026182.270.5%METI volume
Japan31 Aug 2026181.670.2%METI volume
Japan30 Sep 2026179.269.3%METI quick estimate: 102 state days x 279,300 kL/d
Japan27 Oct 2026177.468.6%METI quick estimate: 101 state days x 279,300 kL/d
South Korea31 Dec 2025100.0100.0%KNOC government stocks
South Korea31 Aug 2026100.0100.0%KNOC government stocks
South Korea19 Oct 2026100.0100.0%KNOC government stocks
China27 Feb 20261,230.0100.0%Kpler via Al Jazeera: 1.23 bn in late February
China5 May 20261,251.0101.7%Kpler: early-May peak
China25 May 20261,232.0100.2%Kpler
China14 Oct 20261,124.091.4%Kpler: ~80 days of refinery needs

Country table

Output now, the wartime average, runway at the current output, official days of cover, and the IEA pledge. Open a row for the derivation. updated 27 Oct 2026

CountryOutput now (kb/d)Wartime avg (kb/d)Runway to emptyRunway to floorCover (days)Reserve (mb)Released (mb)IEA pledge (mb)
United States 666 558 424 d, 21 Dec 2027 319 d, 7 Sep 2027 86 282.6 23 Oct 2026 132.9 172.2
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (government crude): how these numbers were derived
  • Output now: 40.6 mb awarded 13 and 28 Oct for Nov-Dec delivery (measured last 4 weeks: 42 kb/d) (40.6 mb over 61 days = 666 kb/d). Measured over the last four weeks (25 Sep 2026 to 23 Oct 2026): 42 kb/d.
  • Wartime average: 27 Feb-23 Oct average, EIA weekly (415.441 to 282.583 mb between 27 Feb 2026 and 23 Oct 2026).
  • Runway: 282.583 mb on 23 Oct 2026 divided by the rate, rounded down to whole days. Operating floor 70 mb (SPR minimum operating level, Reuters citing a DOE source, 31 Aug 2026). At the wartime average: 506 days, 12 Mar 2028.
  • Cover: SPR / net crude imports, using DOE's end-2025 ratio (411 mb = 125 days); usable cover above the floor 65 days.
  • Released: pre-war reading minus latest reading (2026-02-27 to 2026-10-23).
  • Scheduled deliveries take the SPR to ~242 mb by end-December; 216 mb is due back from early 2027. Operating floor ~70 mb.
  • Source: eia.gov, as of 23 Oct 2026.
Japan 62 418 2,861 d, 27 Aug 2034 floor not published 201 177.4 27 Oct 2026 76.9 79.8
National (state) stockpile: how these numbers were derived
  • Output now: State days 103 (31 Aug) to 101 (27 Oct); from rounded day counts.
  • Wartime average: State stock end-Feb to end-Aug, METI volumes (258.600 to 177.400 mb between 28 Feb 2026 and 31 Aug 2026).
  • Runway: 177.400 mb on 27 Oct 2026 divided by the rate, rounded down to whole days. No operating floor has been published. At the wartime average: 424 days, 25 Dec 2027.
  • Cover: Stockpiling Act days, all stocks, 27 Oct (IEA basis: 175 at end-Aug).
  • No further release planned (25 Aug, 5 Oct); about 13 mb of the authorised volume is unused. Private obligation cut 70 to 55 days.
  • Source: enecho.meti.go.jp, as of 27 Oct 2026.
South Korea 0 0 no net draw floor not published 208 100.0 19 Oct 2026 32.7 22.5
KNOC government stocks: how these numbers were derived
  • Output now: Crude is lent to refiners and repaid in kind; net stock flat (32.7 mb lent 31 Mar-30 Sep).
  • Wartime average: Net draw since March ~0 (100.000 to 100.000 mb between 31 Dec 2025 and 19 Oct 2026).
  • Runway: 100.000 mb on 19 Oct 2026 divided by the rate, rounded down to whole days. No operating floor has been published.
  • Cover: IEA basis, 4 Mar (no later figure published).
  • 4.17 mb of the 100 mb is sanctioned crude that cannot be used. Private obligation cut 40 to 20 days on 29 May.
  • Source: newspim.com, as of 19 Oct 2026.
China 1,600 784 702 d, 15 Sep 2028 floor not published 80 1,124.0 14 Oct 2026 106.0 not published
Commercial onshore crude (state reserve untouched): how these numbers were derived
  • Output now: Kpler: record September draw (official data imply ~530 kb/d).
  • Wartime average: Kpler: 1,251 mb (early May) to 1,124 mb (14 Oct) (1,230.000 to 1,124.000 mb between 5 May 2026 and 14 Oct 2026).
  • Runway: 1,124.000 mb on 14 Oct 2026 divided by the rate, rounded down to whole days. No operating floor has been published. At the wartime average: 1,433 days, 16 Sep 2030.
  • Cover: Kpler: days of refinery needs.
  • Released: pre-war reading minus latest reading (2026-02-27 to 2026-10-14).
  • No state reserve release found; the government reserve (~360 mb, EIA estimate) is still being filled.
  • Source: kpler.com, as of 14 Oct 2026.
Germany 150 17 no series floor not published 95.5 147.2 Aug 2026 3.5 19.5
Emergency stocks (EU directive): how these numbers were derived
  • Output now: Up to 15 mb from 23 Oct to end-January; obligation cut from 90 to 82 days.
  • Wartime average: 3.5 mb credited from 17 Mar to 9 Oct.
  • Cover: Eurostat days of net imports, 2026-08.
  • Stock volume: 20,086 kt x 7.33 bbl/t (approximate).
  • Source: dserver.bundestag.de, as of Aug 2026.
France 101 not published no series floor not published 96.5 120.4 Aug 2026 3.0 14.6
Emergency stocks (EU directive): how these numbers were derived
  • Output now: SAGESS selling 10 mb of diesel, 24 Oct to 31 Jan.
  • Wartime average: not published.
  • Cover: Eurostat days of net imports, 2026-08.
  • Stock volume: 16,420 kt x 7.33 bbl/t (approximate).
  • Source: legifiscal.fr, as of Aug 2026.
Spain 81 not published no series floor not published 100.3 104.1 Jul 2026 3.8 11.6
Emergency stocks (EU directive): how these numbers were derived
  • Output now: 4.4 mb of middle distillates by 15 Dec; obligation cut from 92 to 82 days.
  • Wartime average: not published.
  • Cover: Eurostat days of net imports, 2026-07.
  • Stock volume: 14,199 kt x 7.33 bbl/t (approximate).
  • Source: boe.es, as of Jul 2026.
Netherlands 24 not published no series floor not published 80.4 30.2 Jul 2026 4.7 5.4
Emergency stocks (EU directive): how these numbers were derived
  • Output now: COVA tranche of ~0.75 mb from 2 Oct.
  • Wartime average: not published.
  • Cover: Eurostat days of net imports, 2026-07.
  • Stock volume: 4,122 kt x 7.33 bbl/t (approximate).
  • Source: rijksoverheid.nl, as of Jul 2026.
Italy 0 not published no series floor not published 77.3 68.6 Jul 2026 10.0 10.0
Emergency stocks (EU directive): how these numbers were derived
  • Output now: Pledge complete (10 mb, 8 Oct).
  • Wartime average: not published.
  • Cover: Eurostat days of net imports, 2026-07.
  • Stock volume: 9,354 kt x 7.33 bbl/t (approximate).
  • Source: globalbankingandfinance.com, as of Jul 2026.
Poland 0 not published no series floor not published 90.5 58.3 Jul 2026 0.0 7.5
Emergency stocks (EU directive): how these numbers were derived
  • Output now: No release yet; schedule due by end-November.
  • Wartime average: not published.
  • Cover: Eurostat days of net imports, 2026-07.
  • Stock volume: 7,958 kt x 7.33 bbl/t (approximate).
  • Source: money.pl, as of Jul 2026.
Hungary 0 not published no series floor not published 90.2 9.6 Jul 2026 3.6 6.1
Emergency stocks (EU directive): how these numbers were derived
  • Output now: Decree release of ~3.6 mb ran to 30 Jun.
  • Wartime average: not published.
  • Cover: Eurostat days of net imports, 2026-07.
  • Stock volume: 1,308 kt x 7.33 bbl/t (approximate).
  • Source: ground.news, as of Jul 2026.
United Kingdom not published not published no series floor not published not published 73.3 30 Jun 2026 not published 14.0
Company stocks under the stocking obligation: how these numbers were derived
  • Output now: Released by lowering company obligations; volume not published.
  • Wartime average: not published.
  • Cover: DESNZ: 'more than meeting' 90 days of net imports.
  • 10.0 Mt of stocks at end-June (DESNZ), converted at 7.33 bbl/t.
  • Source: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk, as of 30 Jun 2026.
Türkiye not published not published no series floor not published not published not published not published 11.7
Compulsory industry stocks: how these numbers were derived
  • Output now: Regulator opened 46% (13-31 Mar), then 42% (1 Apr-10 Jun) of compulsory stocks; refill due by 31 Dec.
  • Wartime average: not published.
  • Cover: not published.
  • Source: ekonomist.com.tr.
Switzerland 21 not published no series floor not published 76 not published 0.8 not published
Compulsory stocks (BWL): how these numbers were derived
  • Output now: 45,000 m3 diesel (23 Oct-22 Nov) + 30,000 m3 jet fuel (15 Oct-1 Nov).
  • Wartime average: not published.
  • Cover: Jet fuel, 21 Sep (target 90).
  • Draws are under 4% of stocks per release; restock within six months.
  • Source: bluewin.ch.
Australia 0 not published no series floor not published 31 not published 4.8 4.8
Minimum stockholding obligation: how these numbers were derived
  • Output now: Obligation cut 20% for petrol and diesel from 16 Mar; instrument repealed 30 Jun.
  • Wartime average: not published.
  • Cover: Diesel days, 20 Oct (petrol 39, jet 28).
  • Source: fuelplan.gov.au.
India not published not published no series floor not published 78 24.7 23 Mar 2026 not published not published
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (ISPRL): how these numbers were derived
  • Output now: Draws unclear: reports of two cargoes to state refiners (15 Apr) vs untapped (23 Apr).
  • Wartime average: not published.
  • Cover: Total crude and product stocks, oil minister, 8 Jun (SPR alone ~6 days).
  • 3.372 Mt stored, 64% of capacity.
  • Source: business-standard.com, as of 23 Mar 2026.

Europe: days of net imports

Eurostat's emergency-stock measure for each EU state, March 2026 against the latest month published, with the 90-day minimum of Directive 2009/119/EC. updated 30 Sep 2026

Show as a table
CountryMarch 2026LatestMonthMinimumIEA pledge (mb)Released (mb)Note
Denmark72.763.3 below minimumSep 2026901.2not publishedLikely counted as 61 days of consumption
Estonia81.770.6 below minimumAug 2026900.3not publishedLikely counted as 61 days of consumption
Malta102.676.1 below minimumJul 202690not publishednot published
Croatia90.076.7 below minimumAug 202690not publishednot published
Italy90.277.3 below minimumJul 20269010.010.0
Bulgaria85.478.6 below minimumAug 202690not publishednot published
Netherlands96.480.4 below minimumJul 2026905.44.7
Cyprus91.281.1 below minimumAug 202690not publishednot published
Ireland86.583.1 below minimumJul 2026901.7not published
Czechia88.684.4 below minimumAug 2026902.2not published
Lithuania87.484.4 below minimumJul 2026900.6not published
Portugal91.887.1 below minimumJul 2026902.02.0
Austria90.988.8 below minimumAug 2026902.4not published
Romania90.889.3 below minimumJul 202690not publishednot published
Latvia88.089.5 below minimumJul 2026900.3not published
Hungary44.490.2Jul 2026906.13.6
Slovakia86.290.2Jul 202690not publishednot published
Poland91.590.5Jul 2026907.50.0
Luxembourg95.992.3Jul 202690not publishednot published
Germany95.295.5Aug 20269019.53.5
Slovenia102.296.4Jul 202690not publishednot published
France94.596.5Aug 20269014.63.0
Spain98.7100.3Jul 20269011.63.8
Greece105.7101.8Jun 2026902.02.0Likely counted as 61 days of consumption
Belgium107.8106.3Aug 2026900.3not published
Sweden112.8108.2Jul 2026902.1not published
Finland190.3178.0Sep 2026901.8not published

Countries without big strategic reserves

Days of fuel on hand, as stated by each government, with the legal minimum where one exists. Dates vary; the oldest statements are from March. updated 25 Oct 2026

Show as a table
CountryDaysMeasureStatedLegal minimumSource
Indonesia≈ 17Fuel stocks (16-18 days)16 Oct 2026none statedrctiplus.com
Kenya19Diesel (petrol 16)6 Apr 2026none statedcitizen.digital
Pakistan> 20Fuel stocks (20-day legal minimum)18 Sep 202620arabnews.pk
New Zealand20.65Diesel held in-country25 Oct 202621fuelclock.nz
Sri Lanka< 25Fuel stocks; QR-code rationing20 Mar 2026none stateddailymirror.lk
Vietnam≈ 26Commercial stocks; national reserve untapped10 Apr 2026none statedvietnamnet.vn
Australia31Diesel (petrol 39, jet 28)20 Oct 2026none statedfuelplan.gov.au
Bangladesh31Diesel (petrol 20, jet 20)22 Jul 2026none statedobserverbd.com
Thailand48On land (108 incl. cargoes at sea)23 Jul 2026none statednationthailand.com
Philippines53.36All fuels18 Sep 2026none statedtribune.net.ph
India≈ 78Crude + products (SPR alone ~6 days)8 Jun 2026none stateddawn.com
Taiwan> 100Crude6 Mar 202690taipeitimes.com

Caveats

Timeline

28 Feb 2026
US-Israel strikes on Iran; war begins
2 Mar 2026
IRGC closes the Strait of Hormuz
11 Mar 2026
IEA agrees 400 mb collective release; US announces 172 mb SPR exchange
16 Mar 2026
Japan begins releases; Asian members release immediately
19 Mar 2026
IEA confirms 426 mb of country pledges
8 Apr 2026
Two-week US-Iran ceasefire (ceasefire period runs to 8 Jul)
13 Apr 2026
US blockade of Iranian ports begins
17 Apr 2026
Iran says the strait is open during the Lebanon ceasefire
18 Jun 2026
US-Iran MOU: 60-day ceasefire and gradual reopening; partial reopening 18 Jun to 5 Jul
12 Jul 2026
Strait re-closed; blockade reinstated 14 Jul
15 Sep 2026
Tanker attacks resume; Gulf exports recover to more than 75% of pre-war
2 Oct 2026
G7 agrees to accelerate about 100 mb of releases, diesel first
15 Oct 2026
IEA Governing Board: about 330 mb released; remaining about 100 mb accelerated incl. more than 20 mb diesel
29 Oct 2026
DOE completes awards for the 172 mb commitment; EU states pledge 42.6 mb (20.5 mb diesel) by end-Jan 2027